Nicholas Olenev

A normative balance dynamic model of regional economy as a tool for study economic integrations

ABSTRACT

A simplest multi-sector dynamic model for regional economy is a normative balance mathematical model, but it contains a lot of unspecified parameters which are not defined directly by the data of economic statistics. But even in a case when we have all statistical data the quality of them is as a rule such that they suffice only for determination of intervals for the model parameters. Besides, the initial values of some model variables are unknowns and consequently should be considered as such parameters as well. Moreover, even if all necessary statistics is available the quality of the data isn't always good. That's why only confidence intervals for the unknown parameters can be computed from the statistical data. This work presents a method for estimation of the model parameters by application of parallel computations on multi-processors systems and by some heuristic algorithms. They determine the unknown parameters of economic model by indirect way, comparing time series for macro indexes calculated by model with statistical time series for these indexes if we give credence to the data. For an application of this method some measure of similarity between two time-series is required and so a new wavelet based measure of similarity was elaborated. The use of the method is illustrated by the parameter estimation of a macroeconomic model of Kirov (Vyatka) Region of Russia for 2000-2006. This model has eight economic (representative) agents: three producers (Production sectors), Households; Regional bank system, Trade intermediary, Government, Outside world. The each production sector official stock of money grows due to credits, due to sale of the goods on a outside market and in the inner markets, due to transfers from the budget and receipts of the washed money from a shadow turn. It decreases due to payment to households, intermediate consumption, credits payments and transfers of taxes to the consolidated regional budget. The each production sector shadow money stock grows due to sale of shadow final product to households and as intermediate product to other sectors, a certain part of shadow money stock have time to wash, some part of the stock gets as penal sanctions in a profitable part of the regional consolidated budget, and some part goes to the households as shadow incomes. Estimated values of the parameters give new knowledge about the macroeconomic system under investigation and this knowledge can force a researcher to modify the model. Thus macroeconomic model parameter estimation based on parallel processing becomes a powerful tool for mathematical modeling of economic systems. And calibrated model is used for estimation of the Government economic politics in particular for politics of regional economic integration. These type models of regional economies can be used to study trade interactions of these regions.